Predicted Points Added (PPA)
Predicted Points Added measures how much a play changes the offense's expected scoring value. It provides a common point-based scale for comparing plays that occur in different parts of the field and in different down-and-distance situations.
PPA is CFBD's implementation of Expected Points Added (EPA). It should not be assumed to match an EPA value from another provider.
How it works
The model first estimates Predicted Points (PP), the expected value of the next score from a game state defined primarily by down, distance, and field position. A play's PPA is the change between its starting and ending scoring expectation, with scoring plays, turnovers, and failed series handled according to their resulting game state.
A positive value means the play improved the offense's position. A negative value means it lost expected value. Because the scale is based on scoring expectation, a five-yard gain can be valuable in one situation and harmful in another.
CFBD uses one consistent PPA model across the historical and current values in the API. This page does not attach a model date because the production lookup table's original population date is not sufficiently certain.
PPA is proprietary. The public documentation does not include the fitted lookup table, training artifact, or every transformation used in production.
Reading team and player outputs
Team endpoints provide average PPA splits by play type and down. Season responses also include cumulative totals.
- Average PPA is value per included play and is usually the better measure for comparing efficiency across samples of different sizes.
- Total PPA is the sum of value across the sample and combines efficiency with volume.
- Offense measures value created by the team in possession.
- Defense measures the offensive value opponents produced against that team, so lower values generally indicate better defense.
Player outputs include passing, rushing, down, and situation splits where the underlying sample supports them. Missing optional splits should remain missing; they are not zero-value performances.
Limits to keep in mind
PPA values the result of a play in context. It does not fully separate player contribution from blocking, coverage, play calling, opponent strength, or other teammates. Small samples can also be driven by a handful of high-value plays.
Use PPA alongside success rate, explosiveness, volume, and opponent-adjusted metrics rather than treating it as a complete measure of performance.
API access
See Metrics and definitions for success rate, explosiveness, passing downs, and related terms.